“A Real Trend”: Trump Now Ahead Of Biden In Key Battleground States According To Polls

After a summer replete with martyr-making indictments and other legal controversies, former President Donald Trump’s political vigor remains unassailable. Recent polls from battleground states and on the national stage delineate a narrative that leans in favor of Trump, showcasing his astonishing and perhaps unforeseen political resilience.

“Trump can absolutely win a general election, that has always been true, and his odds get better every day Joe Biden is president,” pollster Nathan Klein of OnMessage told the Daily Caller. Trump has continued to make strides in recent polls, albeit with leads in many swing states situated within the margin of error, presenting a cautious optimism within his camp.

Among states with the narrowest margins of victory in 2020, such as Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin—Trump is firmly ahead of Biden at 41% vs. 35%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll from mid-September. Indeed, the shift in political currents has been noteworthy, all while President Biden’s approval rating languishes around 40%.

States that were pivotal in 2020, such as Pennsylvania, where Trump currently leads Biden by 2 points, and Georgia, where he is ahead by 9 points, signal not just a tepid approval for the Biden administration but a potential recalibration of political allegiances and sentiments among American voters.

“Remember, Trump lost Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin by a collective 40,000 votes. The hypothesis that Biden would have a breezy route to re-election if Trump becomes the nominee was, from inception, deeply flawed,” Klein noted.

“As Biden’s likeability has waned, we’re seeing a real trend of voters being drawn back in by Trump’s policies,” he continued. “As Trump now sits on a small put persistent lead in national polls, if he continues to win back a few thousand of the voters he lost in 2020 the path to victory certainly exists.”

Biden’s support has been on a downward trajectory across diverse demographic and political spectra. Crucial issues such as crime and immigration have been described by critics as “rampant mismanagement,” causing many Americans to sour on the administration. “Around 60% of Americans now disapprove of Biden’s handling of immigration, an all-time high,” Klein added.

In late September, a McLaughlin & Associates survey suggested that Trump would emerge victorious over Biden by 43% to 38% in a national head-to-head matchup.

“We are positioned to win the presidency, and we must defeat Joe Biden,” emphasized John McLaughlin, CEO and partner of McLaughlin & Associates, echoing a robust confidence within the Trump team. McLaughlin ascribes Trump’s advantageous position to the American people’s “buyers’ remorse” and a comparative review of the records of both candidates, particularly relating to the economy, crime, and border issues.

An aggregate of polls also has Trump wiping the floor with Biden. Via RealClear Politics:

Kyle Kondik, a nonpartisan polling analyst, cautions about the predictive validity of these early head-to-head matchups but does acknowledge the current data’s indication of a “close and competitive” race.

But can Trump solidify his lead and convert it into a tangible victory? According to GOP polling analyst Jon McHenry, even though other Republican nominees might stand a better chance against Biden, Trump could theoretically clinch victory on an economic basis. However, he recognizes that the situation is too tight to definitively forecast.

“We have such a unique situation right now with both party’s leading candidates in negative territory on their favorable to unfavorable ratings — and the current and previous officeholder. Reelection campaigns are typically a two-step process as a referendum on the incumbent: first, does he or she deserve reelection, and second, would the other candidate do better? I think right now President Biden is losing the referendum, with voters disapproving of his job overall, and especially on the economy and immigration,” said McHenry. “But if the choice is between two candidates with 35 to 40 percent favorables, voters are likely to choose the one who had the better economy.”