Xi: No nukes in Ukraine, Vlad

It would appear that some of Mad Vlad’s recent rhetoric has even some of his friends in China glancing nervously in the direction of Ukraine. Beijing’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow remains in place, but the Chinese have now publicly released information suggesting that there is at least one limit they don’t want to see breached. During a meeting between Xi Jinping and Putin in March, the Chinese leader reportedly “cautioned” him against launching any nuclear weapons in Ukraine. While Xi’s reasons for pushing this issue may be less than noble, it may offer some hope that Putin won’t allow himself to move toward a worst-case scenario if it would cost him the political and economic support of his strongest ally. (Daily Mail)

Chinese President Xi Jinping personally cautioned Russian leader Vladimir Putin against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine during a state visit to Moscow in March, Chinese officials have claimed.

Beijing in recent years has made moves to strengthen its bond with the Kremlin, with the two parties agreeing a ‘no limits’ partnership just prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine…

But in the latest sign that China’s support for Russia could be wavering, a senior adviser to Beijing told the FT that Chinese officials are intent on pushing Putin to back down from nuclear sabre rattling in a bid to repair their lagging relationship with Europe.

China is obviously making a move on the world stage by releasing this information. The meeting in question took place more than three months ago and the news of this conversation never leaked out. They could have kept it secret forever. But in choosing to make a public announcement, China is applying additional pressure on Vladimir Putin.

As far as the reasons for doing this go, there are a couple of possibilities, both of which could be in play. Xi may be legitimately concerned that Putin might pull the atomic trigger, leading to a possible escalation that could embroil the entire world (including China) in flames. China likes to remind everyone occasionally that they have nukes also, but Xi doesn’t seem crazy enough to actually want to use them. Or at least not yet.

But the other motivation that Beijing has is found at the end of the statement they released. They are clearly concerned over the deteriorating economic relations they have with not only the United States but our European allies. Being partners with Russia is costing them money as more nations speak of “decoupling” from China and securing their own supply chains. And it’s all about the money in the end.

While we might look at this as at least a bit of hopeful news, we should also remember that Xi’s cautions are largely a paper tiger. He might be able the threaten the Kremlin with some economic consequences if Russia nukes Ukraine, but he doesn’t have any power that would allow him to make an actual demand and enforce it. If the Madman of Moscow honestly begins to panic and suspects that his own rule is about to crumble or the entire Russian Federation might fall, he could still turn to his nuclear arsenal as a course of last resort. ‘If I’m going down, I’m taking the rest of you bastards with me.’

And that’s always been the greatest fear among people who keep their eyes on the doomsday clock. The theory of mutually assured destruction has served us well for more than half a century. But there are a lot of bombs out there, scattered among far too many countries. And it only takes one person with an itchy trigger finger to light the fire. After that, everyone will feel forced to respond. And then the clock strikes twelve.