Will We Know Who Replaces George Santos Tonight?

As you read this, voting is underway in New York to determine George Santos’ replacement in the state’s Third Congressional District seat. Special elections typically draw an outsized amount of media attention, even in the middle of a presidential primary. That’s partly because there isn’t much other electoral action to fill the media’s news cycle, but this one could actually be important in its own right. In fact, the BBC dedicated a fairly long column to the race this week, explaining why this election matters beyond the borders of New York. Democrat Tom Suozzi is facing off against Republican Mazi Pilip, and the latest polling shows Ms. Pilip with a tight, four-point lead. If those numbers are even close to being accurate, we might be waiting for a while to learn the outcome.

George Santos walked the halls of Capitol Hill for less than a year as a congressman before his colleagues expelled him last December over allegations of fraud.

Voting is now under way to pick his successor in New York’s Third Congressional District, with the Republican and Democratic parties pouring millions of dollars into the race that ends on Tuesday.

Former Congressman Tom Suozzi is running as the Democrat and local official Mazi Pilip, a black Israeli-American who served in the Israel Defence Forces, is the Republican candidate. The winner will represent parts of New York City and Long Island, and polls show the race is neck-and-neck.

As to the polling, given the current political climate, I’m not putting much stock in any poll that doesn’t produce at least a double-digit lead. Four points is barely the margin of error here, so the New York GOP shouldn’t be taking anything for granted. They could still easily lose this seat. And if so, we might be getting an early look at whether or not the next anticipated “red wave” will turn into a trickle or even a bloodbath in the wrong direction.

Given all of the attention that’s currently being focused on the war in Gaza, Mazi Pilip is an even more intriguing candidate. Originally from Ethiopia, Pilip is an Orthodox Jew who fled her home country to escape persecution. She moved to Israel, later emigrating (legally) to the United States. She’s also not entirely a newcomer to politics. She currently serves on the Nassau County legislature, starting in 2022.

Suozzi has done his best to match Pilip’s pro-Israel bona fides. He has repeatedly stated his 100% support for Israel since October 7 and even traveled to Israel in December to vow his continued support. He has also criticized the recent failure of Congress to pass more aid for our ally.

The Democrats are hoping to get a leg up in this race by making it about abortion (of course). Pilip is a mother of seven and she has been trying to walk a tightrope regarding this issue during the campaign. While she admits she is personally opposed to abortion, she goes further than saying the matter should be “left up to the states.” She has said that she believes “every woman should be able to make her own choice” and that she is not going to “force my personal belief on any woman.” If she’s able to make that angle work in a state like New York and pull out a victory, the rest of the party should be paying close attention, in my opinion.

The Biden border crisis will also be on the ballot today. Pilip has decried the flood of illegal migrants taking over her city and blames Joe Biden and the Democrats (including Suozzi) for this disaster. Given the rapidly souring mood of the city when it comes to the migrant invasion, this may play strongly in her favor.

If nothing else, hopefully, this race will bring us some closure in the short, sad tale of George Santos’ congressional career. The man was an embarrassment to the GOP and to the state of New York. But he was also a rock-solid, reliable vote for the GOP in the House. If Ms. Pilip can pull out a victory, hopefully she will wind up being the same, except without all of the lying, corruption, and baggage.