Will Pro-Palestinian Activists Still Matter on Election Day?

Pro-Palesitinian activists have made a point of protesting elected officials, including and maybe especially President Joe Biden. That dynamic has some Democrats worried about what it could mean for their prospects in November.

…as the U.S. struggled to prevent the conflict from spiraling into a humanitarian catastrophe, some of Biden’s close advisers and allies began worrying that rather than bolstering his image as an experienced global leader, the president’s steadfast support for Israel’s offensive risked further complicating his argument that the election is a choice between his competent moral clarity and former President Donald Trump’s chaos…

“It has undermined one of his most important assets against Trump,” Matt Duss, a former top foreign policy adviser to Sanders now at the Center for International Policy, said of Biden’s handling of the war up until this week. “Biden’s reputation was — agree or disagree with him — he’s a decent guy, he’s an empathetic guy, he’s an honest guy. But this policy has been a cruel policy.”…

One senior adviser, granted anonymity to discuss confidential conversations, said leading up to Biden’s confrontational call with Netanyahu on Thursday that there was worry Biden’s difficulty in controlling his Israeli counterpart could undermine his claim to steady competence in voters’ eyes, and elevate Trump’s arguments for projecting a brasher — if far more erratic — image on the world stage.

Biden’s poll numbers took a dive during the withdrawal from Afghanistan, which was seen as a disaster and an embarrassment for the US by many. But there was a dramatic partisan divide in polls about the withdrawal. A year later, 82% of Republicans thought Biden had done a poor job while only 20% of Democrats said the same. Those aren’t great numbers but from Biden’s position, at least it was the other party that was unhappy. They weren’t going to vote for him anyway.

Now the situation is reversed. As of last month, 64% of Republicans approve of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict while 75% of Democrats disapprove. The problem is in Biden’s own party and this time it’s happening in an election year. You can see why Democrats are worried.

Another factor playing into these worries is the extremism of the protesters. The NY Times published a roundup of some of the recent behavior and it goes beyond just shouting slogans outside the White House. Some elected Democrats are dealing with protesters at their homes.

Pro-Palestinian demonstrators have spent weeks protesting outside Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken’s house, spilling pitchers of fake blood and shouting at him and his family…

In Santa Ana, Calif., Representative Lou Correa’s family and neighbors have grown increasingly frustrated with the loudspeaker, bullhorns and shouts from demonstrators who gather as early as 6:30 a.m. on his suburban street.

And then there’s the more general ugliness connected to the protests.

A recent City Council meeting in Berkeley, Calif., turned ugly, with protesters interrupting a Holocaust survivor at a meeting where members discussed a bill marking Holocaust Remembrance Day.

Representative Shri Thanedar, a Democrat from Michigan, said he had been shocked when more than two dozen attendees at his holiday party at a crowded restaurant in Detroit removed their jackets to reveal pro-Palestinian shirts. As they began chanting through a bullhorn, physical altercations broke out. One older woman was sent to a hospital with a broken nose.

Will these people all turn around and vote for Joe Biden seven months from now? It seems unclear at the moment.

Georgia Johnson, a registered Democrat from Manhattan, said she voted for Mr. Biden in 2020 but was reluctant to back his re-election bid unless the administration adopted a less supportive position toward Israel.

“A lot of people here, they’re tired of having to choose between what they feel is the lesser of two evils,” Ms. Johnson, 28, said as she joined the hundreds of protesters gathered outside the event. “What he’s doing doesn’t feel like the lesser of two evils to me. It feels like something very evil.”

I can see why Democrats are nervous about this. Biden’s opponents on the left don’t have to vote for Trump, they just have to be disgusted enough to stay home and that could cost Biden the election. Will they actually do that?

My own guess is that they’ll forgive and forget quickly once the conflict ends but it’s still not clear when that will be. If this drags on through August, the Democratic convention in Chicago is going to be a wild ride.