Things are heating up around Taiwan

Saturday China sent several dozen warplanes and ships toward Taiwan in the most recent show of force aimed at the island. Why today? There are several possible explanation, one of which is that Taiwan is about to begin its annual anti-invasion military drills.

Taiwan is due to hold its annual Han Kuang exercise next week, during which its military will hold combat readiness drills for preventing an invasion. It will also conduct the annual Wan’an exercises aimed at preparing civilians for natural disasters and practicing evacuations in case of an air raid.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army sent 37 aircraft and seven navy vessels around Taiwan between 6 a.m. Friday and 6 a.m. Saturday, the ministry said in a statement.

Among them were J-10 and J-16 fighters and H-6 bombers, and 22 of the detected warplanes crossed the midline of the Taiwan Strait — an unofficial boundary that had been considered a buffer between the island and mainland — or entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone near its southern part, the statement said.

China has been making a point of sending its warplanes across the median line ever since Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan. It’s their way of upping the ante. But the upcoming military exercises aren’t the only reason China might be making this show of force. There’s a report today that the US will be expediting a shipment of arms to Taiwan. Earlier this year, Congress authorized the Biden administration to quickly ship up to one billion worth of arms without further congressional action. The delivery has been delayed but it sounds like it’s about to get back on track.

Washington will expedite arms sales to Taiwan through various means including the presidential drawdown authority, US Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Affairs Ely Ratner said on Thursday.

Ratner was speaking at a hearing held by the US House of Representatives’ Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the US and the Chinese Communist Party to discuss US President Joe Biden’s China strategy…

“Providing these self-defense capabilities to Taiwan is one of the department’s highest priorities,” Ratner said.

And there’s a third possible reason, one which appears to be an even bigger issue from China’s perspective. Taiwan will be holding presidential elections in January and China’s current vice president is considered to be the front runner to replace outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen. VP Lai Ching-te will be making a trip to Paraguay next month to meet the country’s president-elect. During that trip he’ll be transiting across the United States on his way to and from Paraguay. China has made it very clear that they do not want the guy who is likely to be Taiwan’s next president to make any stops along the way to meet with US officials.

Chinese ambassador Xie Feng told the Aspen Security Forum that “Taiwan is China’s Taiwan” and that the country wanted a peaceful “reunification”, but Taiwanese “separatists” were advancing their agenda, seeking U.S. support.

“They even do not admit they are Chinese. So this is a very dangerous path they are taking,” Xie said.Provocative moves by Taiwan “separatists” should be contained, he added.

“Now the priority for us is to stop Lai Ching-te from visiting the United States, which is like a grey rhino charging at us,” Xie said, using Lai’s Chinese language name.

A “grey rhino” event refers to a highly obvious yet ignored threat.

The US had previously warned China not to make a big deal of the transit situation.

Beijing “should not use as a pretext any transit by Vice President Lai for brazen coercion or other provocative activities [and] should not be a pretext for interference in Taiwan’s election either,” said a senior administration official Sunday, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity…

Lai’s upcoming transit “ is routine given the distances involved” between Taiwan and Paraguay and will be “unofficial in keeping with our U.S. One-China policy,” said the official. “We’ve had 10 Vice Presidential transits in the last 20 years — all have occurred without incident,” the official said.

Obviously, that warning fell on deaf ears. China is making a big deal of this and that may be another reason for today’s show of force. China basically behaves like an abusive ex-husband who has been kicked out of the house for more than 70 years but can’t take the hint. Xi Jinping keeps showing up demanding reunification that Taiwan clearly does not want. The only way that’s going to happen is by force and China knows it but, at the moment, the probably don’t have the ability to pull off an invasion.

Plus, they have been watching how Russia has been doing in Ukraine and that is probably giving them some serious second thoughts about how easy it would be if the entire western world turned on them. China is in an awkward position and flexing their military muscle is probably the only thing they can do about it at the moment.