McCarthy isn’t sure that Trump is the strongest Republican candidate in 2024

A growing consensus is that former President Trump may win the Republican presidential primary race but he will not win the general election. Speaker McCarthy’s comments Tuesday may indicate he is of the same decision.

Trump is comfortably ahead in the polls so far. He uses the indictment announcements against him to fundraise and to highlight a two-tiered system of justice. There is one standard for Trump and one for the Biden family, or any other Democrat that does some questionable actions. Two things can be true at the same time – Trump is being prosecuted for political reasons and his actions caused his current situation. He does himself no favors as it is discovered that there are tapes proving his actions in his own voice. Egads.

The question is whether or not we reach a point when the legal troubles of the former president become so overwhelming that nothing else is being discussed in the Republican primary. He sucks all the oxygen out of a room. At that point, even some of the most die-hard Only Trump voters may begin to look for an alternative candidate. This isn’t 2015 and Trump’s constant name-calling and trash-talking against everyone, but mostly other Republicans, during the primary gets old. Republican voters are bored with it in 2023. Most think it is time to move on. Trump also has an age problem. He’s not frail and feeble, dazed and confused like Biden but he is 77 years old now. That’s still old for someone running to be president.

Old people repeat the same stories and opinions over and over again. Trump does that. During every interview, he re-hashes the 2020 election and tells the audience that the election was stolen from him. He also exaggerates his lead in polls. He thinks he has all the votes he needs to win all wrapped up right now. Not only is that a dangerous way of thinking but it’s just not reality.

On CNBC’s Squawk Box Tuesday, McCarthy said, “Can he win that election? Yeah he can. The question is, is he the strongest to win the election? I don’t know that answer.”

“But can anyone beat Biden? Yeah, anybody can beat Biden,” the speaker went on. “Can Biden beat other people? Yes, Biden can beat them. It’s on any given day.”

Trump has been widely pegged as the GOP frontrunner and leads his nearest competitor, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 30.6 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics national polling average.

The same outlet shows Trump, 77, narrowly leading the 80-year-old Biden in the 2024 popular vote, 43.8% to 43.6%.

This should be a winning election cycle for Republicans, especially the presidential race, because Biden and Harris are both so unpopular and their policies have failed to provide results Americans are looking for in their everyday lives. Some pie-in-the-sky infrastructure bill that won’t reap results for years, if ever, doesn’t do much for voters when they go to the polls in 2024. Will Republicans snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? It’s happened too frequently lately to not think about that.

The tide may be turning, though, because it is very unusual for McCarthy to say the quiet part out loud. He usually is pretty good about talking up Trump and Republican chances in 2024. By admitting that Trump may not be the best or strongest candidate in 2024, well, that is a noticeable statement. He did soften the blow by saying he thinks that Trump’s impeachments should be expunged because they never should have happened.

As for the indictments that came out of Manhattan and the 37-count federal indictment in Miami, McCarthy said they help Trump in polling.

“It makes it complicated. It also helps him,” McCarthy replied, alluding to Trump’s strong polling in the GOP primary despite the indictments.

The speaker added that if Trump is the GOP nominee for a third consecutive cycle, “sheer policy to policy, it’s not good for Republicans — it’s good for America. Trump’s policies are better, straightforward, than Biden’s.”

It’s complicated.

McCarthy has not endorsed any presidential candidate for 2024.

Republican voters may be ready for a change but so far they have not come together for another candidate. At the top of Trump’s challengers is Ron DeSantis and he is still only at 20% or so in polls. Trump leads him by 30 points in most polls. There is time yet and I do think that eventually the indictments will catch up with him but until then, we just have to wait and see who begins to fall away from Trump. McCarthy certainly has not done that but today’s remarks raised some eyebrows.