Independent Voters Dislike Trump, But Hate Biden’s Presidency

The New York Times’ focus group on the election is mind-blowing. It gives you a good sense of why Trump might actually win the election despite the fact that many of his voters hate his guts. 

In @nytopinion

For its latest focus group, Times Opinion spoke with 13 independent voters about the issues that might sway them to vote for either Joe Biden or Donald Trump.https://t.co/Hs9jEluqgd

— The New York Times (@nytimes) February 13, 2024

The results were published yesterday, and I just got around to reading the report. Even I, a couch potato and obsessive reader, didn’t find the time to. 

You should. Because it will give you insight into how voters who don’t feel comfortable in either political party are viewing the upcoming election. That is, if you have a subscription. Pretty sure it is behind a paywall. 

So first, let’s get this out of the way. Most of the voters interviewed hate Trump with a passion. They know who he is, and don’t like him. Nothing is going to change their minds–they will either vote for or against him–11 out of 13 think they will vote for him–regardless of whether he is set to go to jail. 

If you saw that list of attributes applied to any other politician you would assume that they would be toast in an election. 

With Trump, these adjectives are pretty much what you would expect from the average American considering a vote for Trump. 

I’ve made clear my own attitudes toward Trump and people in the comments on Hot Air love him or hate him. None of us is indifferent. And of the people who hate him I would guess that most will wind up voting for him. 

And not just because he is better than Biden. Objectively speaking, the anxiety level of the country was elevated during Trump’s term, but the conditions on the ground were much, much better than today. To the extent that we were in an era of bad feelings, most of us understand that while Trump fed the derangement syndrome, the actually deranged people were his opponents. 

The number one reason that these voters were unhappy was that they feel pretty strongly that Biden has been a bad president, especially on the economy. And by a wide margin the economy was the #1 issue, with even the voters who cared deeply about abortion discounting it as an issue on which to vote. They understand it is a state issue and that neither president will do anything to change the trajectory of the politics or policy. 

On the economy they see the direct connection. 

Nor do the voters think much of Biden. Trump, they know who he is and that he is up front about it. Biden they see as a tool. 

The Times summed up the attitudes of its focus group members succinctly:

What can President Biden say and do to win over undecided voters? What concerns and arguments will draw these voters to Donald Trump? For our latest Times Opinion focus group, we spoke with 13 undecided independent voters from across the country about how they see the two leading presidential candidates and explored some issues that might affect how they vote in November. To a striking degree, most of the participants tilted toward Mr. Trump, even though they disliked his personality.

So why did they lean toward Mr. Trump? As you’ll read below, almost all the voters (who range in age from 22 to 64) were most worried about the economy and how their groceries and other bills were too costly. Some were also deeply troubled by the crisis at the southern border, and some were concerned about the Israel-Gaza war and disliked U.S. aid to other countries. The participants’ comments indicated that most did not feel they were in good hands with Mr. Biden or trust that they would be, using words like “senile,” “unfit” and “disingenuous” to describe him. And while the group viewed Mr. Trump negatively, some people suggested that the country was on its toes more with him in office.

In my experience, when people’s attitudes are this set in stone they are unlikely to change. No amount of gaslighting from Karine Jean-Pierre or Alejandro Mayorkas will get voters to change their mind about Biden’s incompetence and senility. 

What is striking is that, despite hating Trump’s guts, they feel comfortable with him returning to office. They don’t like it. They expect his term to be filled with more division, and dislike that too. 

But if prices come down and the economy improves, they are all for it. 

Oh, and it would be nice to avoid World War III, too.