China’s foreign minister hasn’t been seen for three weeks

Weird things happen in a secretive dictatorship. People who say or do something wrong can suddenly disappear. It happens to ordinary people but in China no one is exempt. Even billionaires and famous actresses can disappear for weeks at a time. But even in a country where people disappear routinely it’s a bit surprising to see the country’s own foreign minister (and close associate of Xi Jinping) just vanish.

China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang has not been seen in public for three weeks, an unusually long absence during a busy period of diplomatic activity in Beijing, sparking intense speculation in a country known for its political opaqueness.

Qin, 57, a career diplomat and trusted aide of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, was promoted to foreign minister in December, after a brief stint as ambassador to the United States.

As foreign minister, Qin has delivered searing rebukes of Washington after relations plunged to a new low in the aftermath of a suspected Chinese spy balloon that was shot down over the US…

But the high-profile diplomat has not been seen in public since June 25, after he met with officials from Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Russia in Beijing.

Qin Gang is considered a leader in the “wolf warrior” style of diplomacy favored by Xi Jinping. Basically that means he likes to talk tough about the United States. That sort of tough talk hasn’t come to a stop but it has slowed a bit lately as China is engaged in a charm offensive aimed at reassuring the US (and foreign investors in general) that China is a safe place to do business. The need for such reassurance comes after China’s 2nd quarter growth fell short of expectations.

Official data released Monday revealed that the annual pace of growth in China’s economy tumbled to just a little over 3 percent in the spring, well below the government’s target.

Now the faltering economy appears to have helped prompt a shift in the willingness of senior Chinese officials to engage in diplomatic talks with geopolitical rivals abroad, and to show more openness on economic policy at home.

The change in tone is particularly visible in China’s relations with the United States.

The economic data was only revealed today but presumably officials had an idea what it would be a few weeks ago. Could that account for Qin Gang’s disappearance? Did Xi Jinping decide his brand of tough talk was just not what was needed with the economy in a slump? That’s a possibility but it’s not the only one.

As questions have mounted over Mr. Qin’s extended absence, overseas Chinese commentators have offered theories that an affair with a television personality might be behind his problems, and the speculation has become big news in Taiwan.

Asked about the rumors on Monday, Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said: “I have no understanding of the matter that you’ve raised.”

The Daily Mail has a bit more detail on the rumors:

…television presenter Fu Xiaotian has also not been seen for some time, as well as her infant son.

The Cambridge-educated presenter is one of the most prominent figures on Chinese television and frequently interviews the state’s top officials.

This has caused rumours to circulate, especially in the Taiwan and Hong Kong press, that the two may have engaged in an affair.

Qin Gang was interviewed by Fu Xiaotian last year. You can see them together in that screen grab above. I have no idea if the rumors are true but clearly something unusual has happened and the CCP is treating it as a secret which almost certainly means it’s not good news. Qin is a close associate of Xi Jinping and owes his career to Xi. So if he did do something embarrassing, that would reflect badly on Xi as well.

It remains quite plausible that Mr. Qin fell ill and is recovering. Even so, the episode would be a telling example of how the party’s aversion to sharing bad news can undermine its efforts to control the narrative.

“Secrecy is the chosen mode of operation because for the Chinese Communist Party, information is a weapon,” said Willy Wo-Lap Lam, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a research institute in Washington.

“But in this case, the mystery surrounding such an important official — foreign minister — is mind-boggling,” he said.

Should it turn out that Mr. Qin somehow ran afoul of the Communist Party’s leadership, it could also reflect poorly on Mr. Xi, who has used his dominance to fast-track the rise of Mr. Qin and a cohort of other loyalist officials, Mr. Lam said.

We’ll see what happens next. Maybe Qin will reappear this week and everyone will pretend nothing happened. What probably won’t happen is any kind of confirmation of a story that embarrasses Xi or the party. Finally, here’s the interview he did last year with Fu Xiaotian.