Can Turkey Negotiate Peace in Ukraine?

If we’re finally going to see some serious peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, they may be organized by a rather unlikely intermediary. Yesterday, Volodymyr Zelensky visited Turkey and met with Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan. During the meeting, Erdogan said that he broached the possibility of hosting a peace summit and bringing Russia into the mix. Turkey is somewhat uniquely positioned to take on such a role, but there is no assurance that Vladimir Putin would go along with the idea or that he would be open to any reasonable resolution. Russia has recently made some minor advances on the battlefield and Putin no doubt believes that he has the upper hand for the moment. He also has an election coming up, so he likely won’t want to do anything that mght signal weakness on his part. Russia has yet to officially comment on the offer. (Associated Press)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose NATO-member country has sought to balance its close relations with both Ukraine and Russia, offered during a visit Friday from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to host a peace summit between the two countries.

Erdogan, who has repeatedly discussed brokering a peace deal, said at a news conference in Istanbul following his meeting with Zelenskyy that he hoped Russia would be on board with Turkey’s offer.

“Since the beginning, we have contributed as much as we could toward ending the war through negotiations,” Erdogan said. “We are also ready to host a peace summit in which Russia will also be included.”

Erdogan has been a dubious ally at best since seizing power in Turkey. He has been cozying up to Russia as well as Iran and Venezuela, despite allegedly being a member of NATO. But in this case, that’s probably what makes him the most well-positioned leader in the region to attempt to broker some sort of peace deal. He has been cutting deals with both Ukraine and Russia and trying to stay on good terms with their leaders. If they’re going to sit down with anyone, it just might be Erdogan, for better or worse.

Zelensky sounded dubious after the meeting. While not ruling it out, he indicated that any peace arrangement would need to address a ten-point plan that he previously put forward. His list of demands includes “restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity,” the withdrawal of all Russian troops, a tribunal for “those responsible for the aggression,” and the release of all prisoners.

Almost any of those items will likely keep Putin away from the table. He’s not going to give up all of the territory he’s gained, though he might be willing to back off from some of the contested territory around the eastern battle lines. He certainly won’t submit himself to any sort of international tribunal. A prisoner release should be doable, along with the withdrawal of Russia’s troops, at least temporarily. But none of that will happen if Ukraine is sticking to the other demands.

The problem is that Zelensky isn’t arguing from a position of power at this point. If these talks had been attempted during the first six months of the war when Ukraine was pushing Russia’s forces out of the western half of the country, perhaps something might have been achieved. But Ukraine is losing the war at this point and running very low on ammunition and troops. His forces are unable to mount a counteroffensive and take back any ground. Putin knows all of this. Why would he make such huge concessions when he’s winning? It would be worthwhile to see them at least make the effort, but I’m not getting my hopes up at this point.