Siege of Avdiivka: Russian Forces Cut All the Supply and Reinforcement Routes for the Ukrainians, in a Move to Encircle the City

After months of an unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive, where Kiev managed to conquer one quarter of one percent of the territory under Russian control, the tables now have turned.

With fierce assaults, non-stop shelling and combat aircraft work, starting on October 9^th, Russian forces have been carrying out a sustained attack of their own.

Fighting intensified in multiple sectors of the 1,000-km-long (600-mile) front, but the world’s attention right now is centered in the siege on Avdiivka, ‘the key to Donetsk’.

It’s the seventh straight day of assaults in Russia’s biggest push since last spring, attempting to create a ‘cauldron’ around the Ukrainian defenders in the ‘industrial heartland of Donbas’.

The Economist reported:

“Whether it becomes the main thrust of a fresh Russian offensive is too soon to determine. It is not in doubt that Russia has committed substantial resources to its latest push. Ukrainian officials claim that up to three battalions have been thrown at Avdiivka. They are supported by tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and aircraft launching from distance highly accurate guided ‘glide bombs’. Andriy Yermak, who heads the Ukrainian president’s office, tweeted: ‘The Russians threw a lot of forces in this direction. They are betting on quantity’.”

Just read that against the Ukrainian official in the last piece saying that ‘Moscow did not commit enough troops to encircle the city’.

As for numeric superiority, it’s a major tenet of Military doctrine that you need at leat a 3-1 superiority to implement offensive actions.

Watch: tank column heading to Avdiivka:

“Were it to happen, losing Avdiivka would be a blow to Ukrainian morale. Like Bakhmut before it, the town, now in ruins with its 30,000 citizens long since evacuated, has become something of a symbol of Ukrainian resistance.

[…] The fight for the coke plant and the ash dump is likely to be hard and bitter in the days ahead. Whether or not Avdiivka falls to the Russians, it is still likely to have a negative effect on the continuing Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south.”

Vitaliy Barabash, head of Avdiivka’s military administration, quoted in Reuters: “They are striking with everything they have. Bouts of shooting, artillery, multiple rocket launchers, mortars and a lot of aircraft,” Barabash told national television.”

Watch: Russian incendiary charges target Ukrainian forces in Adviivka:

Only 1,620 residents remained in Avdiivka, out of a pre-war population of 32,000.

20 km (12 miles) west of the Russian-held town of Donetsk, Avdiivka has become a watchword for resistance.

Moscow is now deploying additional forces to encircle the strategically important city.

Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, told a U.N. Security Council meeting, reported by Associated Press.

“’Russian troops have, for several days now, switched over to active combat action practically throughout the entire front line. … The so-called Ukrainian counteroffensive can therefore be considered finished‘, he said.”

Of course, Ukrainian commanders and officials try to put a victorious spin on the situation and, like in Mariupol and Bakhmut, proclaim that the Russian offensive ‘is failing’.

The Guardian reported:

“A top Ukrainian commander has claimed that Russia’s biggest offensive in months – involving tanks, thousands of soldiers and armoured vehicles in an attack on the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka – is failing, as he admitted Kyiv’s own attempts to advance in the south were proving ‘difficult’.

[…] Ukrainian military officials say Moscow’s goal is to encircle Avdiivka, but so far the attackers have made modest gains. Russia’s 25th combined arms army pushed forward from the south and north. It seized the nearby village of Berdychi and closed in on a 150-metre high slag heap next to the town’s coke and chemical factory.”

MSM reports that the Russians have suffered ‘serious’ losses – that is unavoidable in offensive actions. Ukraine lost no less than 70k in a few months without any tangible strategic result.

So the valiant Ukrainians brag that ‘there is zero possibility the Russian army will break through’.

Russian Telegram channels report that Moscow has complete control over all supply routes to Avdiivka, and that neither military materiel nor humanitarian aid is reaching the city.

Russian Federation forces hold fire control over all supply routes for enemy groups in this area, so when Ukrainian try to bring up reserves, they are being ‘covered’ with artillery and aviation.

Kiev’s troops launched several counterattacks to regain control of previously lost positions, but were rolled back to the initial positions with losses.

Read more about Avdiivka:

The Siege of Adviivka Guide: What We Learned From Mariupol and Bakhmut