Did NY’s Special Election Unlock 2024 for Democrats?

The New York Times thinks so. Politico does, too. However, the real lesson of Tom Suozzi’s restoration to the House in a special election last night seems much more prosaic: Electing a fraud has consequences in the next election. And it might be even less than that, and more of a district just reverting to its norm. 

Suozzi won the special election for NY-03 last night, made necessary by the expulsion of former Rep. George Santos over fraud allegations connected to his 2022 campaign. Suozzi had retired after three terms to make an unsuccessful run for governor in that same cycle, but came back to finish up Santos’ term. 

The race in the D+2 district wasn’t terribly close, but it wasn’t a blowout either. Suozzi defeated Mazi Pilip 53.9% to 46.1%, at least as of the count early this morning. Assuming that gap doesn’t expand, it’s not even Suozzi’s most impressive performance in NY-03:

• 2020: Suozzi 56%, Santos 43.5%
• 2018: Suozzi 59%, Dan DeBono 41%
• 2016: Suozzi 52.9%, Jack Martins 47.1%

The 2016 election was Suozzi’s first for the seat (after Steve Israel retired), which is likely why that election was his closest. Last night’s ~54% actually is slightly below Suozzi’s incumbent performances. Joe Biden won this same district in 2020 by ten points, 54/44, so Suozzi arguably underperformed a bit, especially against a novice opponent whose organization seemed lacking.

Still, it’s good enough to win, and is evidence that NY-03 returned to form. It also provides evidence that Santos lucked out in 2022. Suozzi’s retirement and Lee Zeldin’s surprisingly strong challenge against Kathy Hochul in the gubernatorial race made the difference in that cycle. Zeldin also won this district 54/44 in 2022, while Santos won it 53.7/46.2 over Rob Zimmerman. If Suozzi had stuck to the House, Santos may have won, but it doesn’t seem too likely.

However, the New York Times today paints this as a moment when Moses brought down the Border Crisis Tablets from Mount Rio Grande:

The outcome flipped one of the five House seats Democrats need to retake the majority in November, giving the party a badly needed shot of optimism. But Mr. Suozzi’s campaign also provided something that may prove more valuable, a playbook for candidates across the country competing on turf where President Biden and his party remain deeply unpopular.

The strategy went something like this: Challenge Republicans on issues that they usually monopolize, like crime, taxes and, above all, immigration. Flash an independent streak. And fire up the Democratic base with attacks — in this case, nearly $10 million in ads — on the abortion issue and former President Donald J. Trump, the likely Republican nominee for the White House.

“It’s a very interesting lesson to Democrats that you can escape your opponent’s attacks on immigration by not only leaning into the issue, but doubling down on it,” said Steve Israel, a former congressman from the district who once led the House Democrats’ campaign arm.

“Instead of trying to pivot around the issue, he charged into it,” Mr. Israel added.

Politico is only slightly less enthusiastic about the immigration-crisis narrative:

New York Democrats had a Long Island problem. The results on Tuesday may have solved it.

Suozzi leaned into the migrant crisis. He acknowledged it’s a problem for voters and blasted House Republicans for opposing a Senate-negotiated immigration package. Republicans couldn’t hold a district where the migrant crisis has dominated the news.

Republicans made gains in Nassau and Suffolk counties in the last three years, picking up key legislative seats in Albany, county executive offices and all of the House seats. Suozzi’s victory breaks the red tide on Long Island. Democrats will want to replicate this three more times in November in the districts held by GOP Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Andrew Garbarino and Nick LaLota.

The race may have changed the calculus for both parties on the migrant crisis.

Democrats didn’t really have a “Long Island problem,” at least not in NY-03. They only lost that seat once, and mainly due to Zeldin’s coattails and Suozzi’s attempt to move up the ladder. Having an incumbent-ish and prominent Democrat come in and beat an unknown Republican in a D+2 district — a Republican candidate still registered as a Democrat, by the way — by seven points isn’t exactly a sign of strength or renewal. It looks more like chickens coming home to roost, at worst.

On the plus side, this might convince Democrats to actually run on the Biden record regarding immigration and the border crisis. If that’s the lesson they take from last night’s special election, well … pass the popcorn.