WSJ: Prigozhin planned to capture defense minister near the border but his plans leaked

The Wall Street Journal has a report this morning that adds some new information to what Prigozhin’s plan was at the outset of the “March for Justice.” His focus really was on Defense Minister Shoigu but he originally didn’t think he’d have to go to Moscow to get him.

Prigozhin’s plot involved the capture of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and top army general Valery Gerasimov when the pair visited a region along the border of Ukraine, the WSJ wrote.

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) learned of the plot two days before it was due to take place, forcing Prigozhin to change his plans at the last minute and launch a march towards Moscow instead, according to the report.

This plan would have made a lot more sense if the goal was to make a point about the defense minister, who Prigozhin has been badmouthing for months, without sending an armed convoy toward Moscow. But apparently his plans leaked. It’s still not clear who leaked them but a report from the NY Times yesterday suggested that multiple high level figures in the Russian military knew about the plans in advance.

A senior Russian general had advance knowledge of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plans to rebel against Russia’s military leadership, according to U.S. officials briefed on American intelligence on the matter, which has prompted questions about what support the mercenary leader had inside the top ranks.

The officials said they are trying to learn if Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend, which posed the most dramatic threat to President Vladimir V. Putin in his 23 years in power…

American officials also said there are signs that other Russian generals may also have supported Mr. Prigozhin’s attempt to change the leadership of the Defense Ministry by force. Current and former U.S. officials said Mr. Prigozhin would not have launched his uprising unless he believed that others in positions of power would come to his aid.

Was Surovikin (aka Gen. Armageddon) angling for the defense minister job after Shoigu was captured by Prigozhin? Maybe so but on Saturday he pretty quickly came out with a video asking Prigozhin to stop his advance toward Moscow. Was that because the advance wasn’t part of the plan he’d signed on for or was it because the plans had leaked and had little chance of success? There’s another report, this one from a Russia source, saying Prigozhin’s plans had leaked.

Viktor Zolotov, the director of Russia’s National Guard, claimed Monday that senior Russian officials knew of Prigozhin’s plans for a rebellion because people close to the Wagner boss had leaked them, Russian state media agency TASS reported.

Zolotov also claimed the mutiny was “inspired by Western intelligence services” because “they knew weeks in advance.”

The whole idea that the US was involved here seems improbable but the suggestion that the west inspired this definitely seems to be floating around in Russian circles. Putin seemed to allude to it in his speech the other day and the White House was quick to deny it. I have no doubt the US might like to see Russia destabilized by infighting to the point that the war in Ukraine ends, but what influence do we have over Prigozhin? Keep in mind he’s been bashing Shoigu for months.

As for Gen. Surovikin, he’s considered to be Russia’s most competent general, though his tenure commanding forces in Ukraine was fairly brief. Still, the last thing the US would want to see is a series of events that put him in charge of the war effort.

Trying to parse all of these claims I think the best we can do now is Occam’s razor, i.e. the simplest explanation is probably best. Right now the simplest explanation is that Prigozhin really hates Shoigu and also saw a chance for advancement with some tacit agreement from Surovikin and possibly others. He would kidnap Shoigu and force a change of leadership in the defense ministry from a distance.

But his plans leaked and he was forced to either abandon them and deny everything or up the stakes by heading for Moscow. He chose the latter path which scared the like-minded generals who hadn’t bargained for a coup that appeared to be challenging Putin directly. And then Lukashenko got on the phone with Prigozhin and told him his forces were going to be wiped out if he didn’t stop. There may also have been some more personal threats courtesy of the FSB. So Prigozhin took the deal to go to Belarus and anyone else involved is hoping Putin overlooks it now that stability is his main concern.