Taylor Swift, Beyonce and an inflated 3Q GDP

U.S. consumers treated themselves this summer, scooping up concert tickets to likes of Taylor Swift and Beyonce, singing and dancing to sold-out shows, while also driving record numbers for U.S. air travel. 

The combination is likely behind a big jump in third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), which is expected to come in north of 4% on Thursday, just about doubling from the second-quarter’s 2.1% read. 

3Q GDP estimates: +4.3% to +4.5%

“It’s all the kind of revenge spending post-pandemic, which is especially concentrated in the service sector. Of course, you know, the poster child of that this summer is, of course, Taylor Swift,” Carl Riccadonna, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas told FOX Business. “It was other concerts. It was sporting events, it was very strong, what we’ll call discretionary service spending from hotels, Las Vegas trips, air travel and all these sorts of things” he added.  

Swift’s Eras Tour ranked at #1 raking in $780 million, according to Forbes list by gross. Ticket prices rocketed to over $1,000 for some shows on demand from Swifties. 

TAYLOR SWIFT TICKET PRICES SKYROCKET

Other high-profile performers also pulled in big bucks, including Beyonce’s Renaissance World Tour $460 millionc and Pink’s $300 million, while Coldplay and Ed Sheeran each topped out at over $200 million. 

Summer travel, often marred with delays due to staffing shortages, also helped to move the needle with a record 227 million people scanned through U.S. airports, as reported by TSA. 

“3Q US GDP is expected to surge to a 4.3% annualized pace driven by a frenzy of summer travel and entertainment, that’s a big jump from Q2 and an unsustainable pace and expected to slow sharply in Q4” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist of Charles Schwab, in an address to clients. 

Riccadonna agrees, pointing out a slowdown is already underway and will likely persist through year-end. 

“Lending standards have tightened sharply for loans in general and consumer credit in particular, while loan demand has softened, according to various bank sector surveys. Consumer delinquency rates have picked up amid rapidly rising credit card and auto loan rates” he detailed in a research note. 

CONSUMERS FALLING BEHIND ON AUTO LOANS AT RECORD RATE

To that point, consumers are falling beyond on their auto loans at a record pace, according to new data from Fitch. The firm also noted the geopolitical and domestic uncertainty swirling as risk factors. With Israel and Hamas at war and the struggle to secure a new speaker of the House leading the headlines. 

HOW HIGH INTEREST RATES ARE ALREADY HITTING AMERICANS

BNP now sees growth in the fourth quarter sinking back to 1.5%, well below the standard 2%-3%+ that is considered a decent barometer for a healthy economy.