Poll: 40% of Californians are thinking about leaving the state

Today the LA Times published the results of a poll taken earlier this month in California. The poll found that most people who live there are happy about it but at the same time fully 40% were thinking about leaving.

About 70% of residents said they are happy living here, a new statewide poll shows, crediting the state’s diversity, economic opportunities and an enjoyable lifestyle as reasons to stick around.

Yet large swaths of residents are also considering packing up and leaving. Many also believe that the state is headed in the wrong direction, and are anxious about the direction of the economy and their ability to pay their bills…

More than 40% of residents say they’re contemplating moving out of California, with nearly half of them saying they’re considering that “very seriously.” About 61% pointed to the high cost of living here as the reason they’d go. People of color are far more likely to say that the expense of living in California is the reason they might leave. About 71% of residents who are either Black or Asian/Pacific Islander and considering relocating cited the cost of living…

Nearly 30% of those surveyed said they might leave because the state’s policies and laws don’t align with their political views, a reflection of the polarization of the state and the nation at the moment. Respondents who identified as conservative were much more likely to cite the politics of the state as the reason why they were considering moving.

No surprise that conservatives are more likely to say state policies are a reason to leave. It’s effectively a one-party state at this point with no end in sight. So in addition to financial incentives to leave, conservatives have political incentives to do so.

The Times seems to be working hard to portray California’s progressive values as a main selling point for the state but they admit midway through the article that not everything in the poll jibes with that. Asked whether the country has “overcorrected and gone too far in its attempts to give everyone equal rights” nearly half said yes. The exact breakdown on this question was 47-46 overall, 53-42 among whites, 44-48 among Latinos, 29-63 among African-Americans and 48-46 among Asians.

There was also another interesting outcome in this poll which the LA Times didn’t mention. Respondents were asked how often they believed people of specific races were discriminated against in California. When asked about African-Americans the overall result was 76 (frequently/sometimes) to 21 (rarely/never).

Black respondents in particular answer this question 88-8, an overwhelming belief that their fellow black Californians were victims. But when the same group was asked how of they had experienced racial discrimination the answer was 59-39.

The same was true for all other racial groups. For instance, Latinos said they believed California Latinos experienced discrimination 75 (frequently/sometimes) to 24 (rarely/never). Yet when asked if they had personally experienced racial discrimination the response was 34-63.

Among Asians, the said discrimination against Asians in California happened 75-22. But asked what discrimination they personally experienced the answer was 35-64.

In other words, the number of people who say they’ve personally experienced it is significantly lower than what people think is happening. It’s not just a few points. For Latinos the gap was 41 points. For Asians it was 40 points. For Black Californians it was 29 points. (For whites the difference was only 9 points).

So either this poll happened to contact a group of people who’ve somehow been uniquely passed over by discrimination or maybe everyone’s perception of how much discrimination is actually happening is way off.