Exclusive – Jason Miller: Democrats Worried Because Biden’s ‘Cognitive Decline’ Will only Worsen

Trump has taken the lead over Biden in several recent polls, including a Washington Post-ABC News poll published last Sunday showing Trump up ten points on Biden and a Messenger-Harris poll showing him with a five-point lead. The 45th president is also ahead of Biden in the Real Clear Politics polling average, at 45.3 percent and 44 percent, respectively. 

“When you see a national poll, assume that Republicans, the Republican candidate, i.e., President Trump, is doing about two points better if not three points better,” Miller told Boyle, who had pointed out that if Trump is tied with Biden nationally he “would win in a landslide.” 

“Put aside the biases of certain pollsters, that’s a simple fact that a national poll is not indicative or necessarily reflective of the swing states, the six or seven swing states. I think there are probably more like six when we’re talking about Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. Obviously, we’re competing in a number of states. It’s really those six that I think are going to be the most tightly contested because, in the national surveys, Democrats have about 12 million or so more votes by running up the score in places like California and New York than Republicans have in running up the score in, say, Alabama, or in Texas, for example, and… so again, anytime you see a national survey, assume that President Trump [is] probably doing about two points better, if not three points better, just from that dynamic.”