Would RFK, Jr. pull the trigger and run as a third party candidate?

If Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. decides to jump ship and run as a third party, Joe Biden’s hopes of re-election are doomed. That is according to a Rasmussen Reports poll that shows that 33 percent of Democrat voters would likely vote for RFK, Jr. if he ran as an independent.

That move would tank Biden’s re-election. If 33 percent of Biden’s voters backed a third party candidate in 2020, Biden would have lost 27 million voters. That would have handed the election to Trump. I used to think that surely a Kennedy would not leave the Democrat Party and run as an independent candidate, given the family’s long history in the party, but his campaign is souring on the DNC’s continued contempt toward them. Rightly so. The DNC refuses to acknowledge Kennedy as a challenger to Biden and is not scheduling any debates as a traditional primary would schedule. The DNC is adamant about ushering Biden into the White House for a second term though his poll numbers are historically low and the majority of Democrat voters want a different candidate.

Speaking to Newsweek a Kennedy campaign spokesperson said: “The fact that President Biden is so unpopular that fully a third of Democrats would vote for an independent candidate in the general election underscores the importance of running a fair and competitive primary election.

“If the DNC [Democratic National Convention] fails to do that, it will likely be saddled with a weak candidate who lacks the popular appeal to defeat the Republicans—whether or not there is a strong third party candidate in the race.”

Kennedy could pick up 14 percent of Republican voters if the 2024 presidential election turns into a repeat Biden versus Trump race.

According to the Rasmussen Report survey, 41 percent of Democrats have an at least somewhat favorable view of Kennedy along with 56 percent of Republicans and 49 percent of those without party affiliation. In total 49 percent of likely voters view Kennedy favorably, including 14 percent for very favorably, whilst 37 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

If the Democrats and Republicans nominate Biden and Trump respectively, and Kennedy runs as an independent, 33 percent of Democratic voters would “likely” vote for him according to the poll, including 14 percent who would be “very likely” to back him.

Among likely voters as a whole, 25 percent said they would likely vote for Kennedy if he runs against Biden and Trump, including 14 percent of Republicans, with 10 percent saying they are “very likely” to cast their ballots this way.

Democrats are worried. They see Biden deteriorate every day. There is not a day that goes by that Biden doesn’t make at least one gaffe that is cringeworthy. His stories are all lies made up to embellish his personal history. He will be 82 on inauguration day. Biden will not get better, he is only going downhill. Not only is that bad for Democrats in terms of the presidential election, but it is bad for the country. Biden’s growing dementia is a national security risk. The world turns away from Joe Biden.

Recent polls, outliers or not, have shown that Biden is in big trouble. He has lost the support of young voters who were an important part of his election in 2020. He lost black men in 2020 and hasn’t won them back. His support among Hispanic voters is low. The environment looks so bad for Biden right now that even Hillary Clinton is warning him about the possibility of a third party candidate.

In a new national NBC News poll, Biden is tied with former President Donald Trump, the front-runner for the GOP nomination, at 46% in a head-to-head matchup. But when third-party options are included, Trump leads Biden 39% to 36%.

Whether it’s the academic Cornel West, a yet-to-be-named standard-bearer for the group “No Labels” or nominees of the more established Green and Libertarian parties, the third-party hopefuls have become the chief internal worry in Biden world, according to more than a half-dozen people who are in regular contact with the White House.

“It’s pretty f—ing concerning,” said a person familiar with White House discussions about the matter.

Biden held a private meeting with Hillary Clinton when she visited the White House recently. She stressed to him the importance of taking a third party candidate seriously. We know that Hillary Clinton blames Green Party nominee Jill Stein for taking votes from Democrats in swing states in 2016. Well, she blames everyone but herself for her loss, to be fair. The most recent polls show Biden neck and neck with Trump. No Labels is threatening to run a candidate in 2024 if the choices are Biden and Trump again. Cornel West may not have a lot of support with voters but they, too, could hand Biden a defeat. West cuts into Biden’s base of black voters and some liberal white voters.

The election will likely be close. Every voter matters, especially in swing states. Kamala can’t save Biden. She is more unpopular than Biden.

It is being reported that Kennedy met with Libertarian Party Chair Angela McArdle last summer.

McArdle told the New York Times that it is her understanding that Kennedy views himself as very libertarian, but is dedicated to running as a Democrat.

“My perspective is that we are going to stay in touch in case he does decide to run,” McArdle said.

The threat of going to a third party run for president is Kennedy’s only real leverage against the DNC and Biden’s campaign. So far they aren’t concerned enough to do something basic like providing Kennedy with Secret Service protection. It’s early in the process but the Kennedy family has a history of assassinations and threats of violence. But Joe Biden is content to prosecute the Republican frontrunner who would challenge him in 2024 and he doesn’t seem too concerned about Kennedy’s personal safety.

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